Bitcoin came tantalizingly close to the long-anticipated $100,000 milestone this week, reaching an all-time high of $99,849.99 on November 22—just $151 short of the psychologically significant six-figure mark that has captivated investors and analysts throughout 2024.
The historic near-miss caps an extraordinary November rally that has seen Bitcoin surge more than 42% since the U.S. presidential election earlier this month, with the broader cryptocurrency market adding over $1 trillion in value as investors price in expectations of a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment under the incoming Trump administration.
Trump Election Fuels Crypto Optimism
The primary catalyst behind Bitcoin’s explosive November rally has been Donald Trump’s decisive victory in the November 5 presidential election and his subsequent pro-crypto policy signals.
Throughout his campaign, Trump promised several initiatives that would mark a dramatic shift in U.S. cryptocurrency policy, including the establishment of a national strategic Bitcoin reserve, eliminating taxes on crypto transactions, and fostering an environment conducive to cryptocurrency company initial public offerings.
These commitments represent a stark departure from the current administration’s approach, which the crypto industry has characterized as “regulation by enforcement.” The prospect of clearer, more favorable regulatory frameworks has unleashed pent-up institutional demand that had been waiting on the sidelines.
Market sentiment reflects this optimism. The crypto Fear and Greed Index, which measures investor sentiment across multiple indicators, has reached 94 out of 100—firmly in “extreme greed” territory and near the highest levels seen during previous bull market peaks.
A Banner Year for Bitcoin
Friday’s record high extends what has already been one of Bitcoin’s strongest years on record. The cryptocurrency is up more than 133% year-to-date, substantially outperforming traditional assets including the S&P 500, gold, and virtually every other major investment category.
November alone has delivered approximately 38% gains, positioning it as Bitcoin’s best month since February and one of its strongest monthly performances ever. If these gains hold through month-end, November 2024 will rank among the top ten monthly returns in Bitcoin’s history.
The rally has pushed Bitcoin’s market capitalization above $1.9 trillion, making it larger than several major corporations and putting it in competition with silver as a store-of-value asset. At current prices, Bitcoin’s market cap represents approximately 6.5% of gold’s total market capitalization—up from less than 2% just three years ago.
Institutional Adoption Accelerates
While Trump’s election provided the catalyst, the foundation for Bitcoin’s 2024 rally was laid earlier in the year with the January approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
These ETFs have attracted substantial institutional capital that previously lacked easy access to Bitcoin exposure. Through November, spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated more than $30 billion in net inflows, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) leading the pack with over $15 billion alone.
This institutional adoption represents a fundamental shift in Bitcoin’s investor base. While retail investors drove previous bull markets, the current rally is characterized by participation from pension funds, registered investment advisors, family offices, and other institutional players seeking portfolio diversification and inflation hedges.
The April 2024 Bitcoin halving—an event that reduced the rate of new Bitcoin creation by 50%—also continues to influence market dynamics. Historically, halvings have preceded major price rallies as the supply-side shock works through the market. With Bitcoin’s annual inflation rate now below 1%, the supply dynamics increasingly favor price appreciation as demand grows.
Technical and Market Dynamics
Friday’s push toward $100,000 was triggered by significant activity in Bitcoin futures markets during Asian trading hours. Open interest—the total number of outstanding futures contracts—spiked to record levels, while funding rates (the cost of holding leveraged positions) turned sharply positive, indicating aggressive bullish positioning.
This derivatives activity suggests professional traders are positioning for an imminent breakthrough of the $100,000 level, possibly before year-end. Options markets show heavy concentration of call options at the $100,000 strike price, with December contracts particularly active.
However, the approach to such a significant psychological level also brings risks. Many traders have placed take-profit orders just below $100,000, creating technical resistance that has prevented the final push higher. Additionally, some market participants may view $100,000 as an opportune level to take profits after the year’s substantial gains.
Bitcoin’s price behavior around major psychological levels has historically been volatile, with initial breakthrough attempts often followed by pullbacks before sustained moves higher.
Broader Crypto Market Momentum
Bitcoin’s rally has lifted the entire cryptocurrency market, with total crypto market capitalization surpassing $3.2 trillion for the first time since late 2021. Alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) have delivered even stronger percentage gains than Bitcoin in many cases.
Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, has climbed above $3,100, approaching its own significant psychological level of $3,500. Solana reached $245 on November 18—its highest price since December 2021—driven by record network fees of $9.3 million as activity surged on the platform.
Even smaller cryptocurrencies have benefited from the improved sentiment, with many tokens associated with decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) posting triple-digit percentage gains this month.
The broader rally reflects expectations that a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment could benefit the entire digital asset ecosystem, not just Bitcoin. Clearer rules for token classifications, reduced enforcement actions, and potential approval of additional crypto ETF products could all support continued market expansion.
What Comes Next?
With just over five weeks remaining in 2024, the question on every crypto investor’s mind is whether Bitcoin will break through $100,000 before year-end—or whether profit-taking and resistance at this level will delay the milestone until 2025.
Several factors could influence near-term price action. Trump’s cabinet appointments, particularly for Treasury Secretary and SEC Chair, will provide insight into how quickly and aggressively the new administration will pursue its pro-crypto agenda. Markets will be watching these nominations closely.
Additionally, year-end institutional rebalancing could create both buying and selling pressure as portfolio managers adjust positions ahead of the calendar turn. Some institutions may book profits to lock in 2024 gains, while others could increase exposure to capture momentum heading into what many expect to be a favorable 2025 environment.
Technical analysts note that Bitcoin has historically struggled with major psychological barriers on first approach, often requiring multiple attempts before achieving sustained breakouts. The $10,000 level in 2017 and the $20,000 level in 2020 both saw multiple failed attempts before eventual breakthroughs.
However, the current environment—with institutional participation, positive regulatory expectations, and strong technical momentum—differs significantly from previous bull markets. Many analysts believe the $100,000 breakthrough is a matter of when, not if.
For now, Bitcoin sits just $151 from making history. Whether that final push happens in the next few days, weeks, or months, the 2024 rally has already cemented this year as one of the most significant in cryptocurrency’s relatively brief history.
This article reflects information available as of November 23, 2024.
