Bitcoin reached $73,600 today, coming within just $200 of its all-time high set in March as the cryptocurrency extends its powerful “Uptober” rally heading into next week’s highly consequential U.S. presidential election. The surge marks Bitcoin’s strongest push toward new price records since establishing its previous peak of $73,750 on March 14.
Today’s price action caps an impressive October that has seen Bitcoin gain approximately 14% month-to-date, reinforcing the cryptocurrency’s historical pattern of strong October performance. With the presidential election just one week away, Bitcoin finds itself at a critical juncture as investors position for potential volatility around the outcome.
The “Uptober” Phenomenon Continues
October has historically been Bitcoin’s second-strongest month, with the cryptocurrency posting gains in 10 of the past 12 years—a track record that has earned the month its “Uptober” nickname among crypto enthusiasts. This year appears to be following that pattern, though the 14% gain remains below the historical October average of approximately 22%.
The month’s rally has pushed Bitcoin’s year-to-date returns past 74%, substantially outperforming traditional assets including the S&P 500, gold, and most other major investment categories. Bitcoin’s market capitalization now exceeds $1.45 trillion, making it larger than several major corporations and cementing its position among the world’s most valuable assets.
Today’s near-miss of the all-time high is particularly notable given the context. When Bitcoin reached $73,750 in March, the move came shortly after the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs created a surge of institutional buying. The current rally, by contrast, reflects a more sustained accumulation pattern driven by consistent ETF inflows and growing institutional adoption.
The rejection at the all-time high level suggests significant resistance remains at these price levels, with some analysts noting that breaking through to establish a new record could trigger substantial additional buying as traders who have been waiting on the sidelines enter the market.
Record ETF Inflows Fuel Momentum
Institutional investment through spot Bitcoin ETFs has emerged as the primary driver behind October’s rally. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their second-best week of inflows since launching in January, with $3.24 billion in net positive flows—nearly matching the record $3.38 billion set in early November.
BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF has led the charge, with a three-day inflow streak exceeding $1 billion. On October 2 alone, IBIT attracted $177.1 million in new capital, demonstrating sustained institutional appetite for Bitcoin exposure at current price levels.
The sustained inflows are particularly significant because they’ve occurred without any single catalyzing event. Unlike March’s ETF-approval-driven spike, October’s accumulation reflects steady, methodical buying from institutional investors who appear comfortable deploying capital at prices near all-time highs.
Cumulative inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs since their January launch now approach $60 billion, representing a substantial portion of Bitcoin’s available supply. This institutional accumulation has effectively reduced the amount of Bitcoin available for sale on exchanges, creating supply-side pressure that supports higher prices.
Other major ETF players have also seen strong inflows. Fidelity’s FBTC recorded $622.3 million in weekly inflows, while Ark Invest’s ARKB added $219 million and Bitwise’s BITB attracted $187.9 million. Notably, Bitcoin ETFs have recorded no net outflows since September 26, indicating consistent institutional conviction.
The ETF flows have created what many analysts describe as a structural bid for Bitcoin—consistent buying pressure from institutional investors who view Bitcoin as a legitimate portfolio asset rather than a speculative trade. This shift in Bitcoin’s investor base from primarily retail to increasingly institutional represents a fundamental change in market dynamics.
Election Uncertainty Creates Cross-Currents
With the U.S. presidential election just one week away, Bitcoin faces a unique moment of uncertainty. The cryptocurrency has been described by some market participants as experiencing a “Trump pump,” reflecting correlation with former President Donald Trump’s rising odds in prediction markets.
Trump has positioned himself as the more crypto-friendly candidate, making explicit promises during his campaign including establishing a national strategic Bitcoin reserve, eliminating capital gains taxes on crypto transactions, and creating a regulatory environment more conducive to cryptocurrency innovation. These policy positions represent a stark contrast to the current administration’s approach, which the crypto industry has characterized as hostile.
However, the election outcome remains uncertain, with polls showing a competitive race in key swing states. This uncertainty has created conflicting market dynamics—on one hand, optimism about a potential Trump victory has supported prices; on the other hand, awareness that the outcome is far from certain has prevented Bitcoin from decisively breaking through to new all-time highs.
Some analysts suggest that Bitcoin’s inability to break decisively above its March high today reflects traders taking profits and reducing positions ahead of next week’s potential volatility. Historical data shows that major political events often trigger sharp price movements in both directions as markets digest unexpected outcomes and policy implications.
Vice President Kamala Harris has offered fewer specific cryptocurrency policy proposals, creating uncertainty about what her regulatory approach might entail. Some industry participants have suggested that a Harris administration might maintain the current enforcement-heavy approach, while others believe any new administration would likely soften the SEC’s aggressive stance toward crypto companies.
The election’s impact on Bitcoin may extend beyond immediate price action. The next administration will determine key regulatory appointments including the SEC chair, which could fundamentally reshape the legal landscape for cryptocurrency in the United States. For an industry that has spent years fighting regulatory battles, these appointments could matter as much as any specific policy promises.
Technical and Market Structure
From a technical perspective, today’s price action represents a critical test of Bitcoin’s ability to break above the March high and establish a new uptrend. The $73,750 level has now served as resistance on multiple occasions, creating what technical analysts call a “triple top” pattern if Bitcoin fails to break through on this attempt.
A decisive break above $73,750 would likely trigger stop-loss orders from short sellers and entry orders from momentum traders, potentially accelerating price appreciation. Conversely, another rejection at this level could lead to profit-taking and a pullback, possibly back toward the $70,000 psychological support level.
Trading volumes have increased substantially as Bitcoin approached the all-time high, suggesting genuine market interest rather than low-liquidity price movements. Open interest in Bitcoin futures has also risen to near-record levels, indicating that derivatives traders are actively positioning for major moves in either direction.
The options market shows significant activity around strike prices both above and below current levels, with substantial open interest in contracts expiring shortly after the election. This positioning suggests traders are preparing for heightened volatility regardless of which candidate wins.
Looking Ahead to Election Week
As Bitcoin enters the final week before the election hovering just below its all-time high, several scenarios could play out. A Trump victory might trigger immediate upside as markets price in expected regulatory relief and policy support. A Harris victory could initially create uncertainty, though some analysts believe any negative reaction might be short-lived if the incoming administration signals a pragmatic regulatory approach.
Perhaps more important than the immediate price reaction will be the actual policy implementation that follows. The cryptocurrency industry has learned through experience that campaign promises don’t always translate directly into policy reality, and that regulatory change in Washington tends to move slowly regardless of political will.
For now, Bitcoin’s position just below all-time highs reflects a market in equilibrium—bulls confident enough to push prices to these levels, but not yet able to overcome the caution that pervades heading into a major political event. The coming week promises to be one of the most significant in Bitcoin’s history, with the potential to set the trajectory for the remainder of 2024 and beyond.
Whether “Uptober” culminates in a definitive break to new all-time highs or gives way to election-driven volatility, Bitcoin’s ability to reach these price levels while maintaining substantial institutional support demonstrates how far the cryptocurrency has come from its speculative origins.
Information in this article reflects the state of the cryptocurrency market as of October 29, 2024.
